Will the next truck pay off, and what do your own figures really say?

Will the next truck pay for itself? The dealer will say yes. The banker will ask for a business plan. And a business plan stands on two numbers nobody knows by heart: the fleet's real utilization and a machine's revenue per month. The product already has those numbers — in your trips and invoices.

The form asks only what you alone know: the truck's price or its lease payment. Insurance and the driver's wage can stay empty — a figure from your history or a default value fills the gap. The rest comes from your history.

The verdict: at forty-seven percent utilization, the truck would clear thirty-eight thousand dirhams a month and pay back in twenty-two months. And right away, a yellow pill: utilization under sixty percent — fill the fleet first. Below it, the truck's month line by line, every assumption with its source. No AI — just arithmetic you can check.

If the numbers are against it, the advisor tells you how many kilometres a month it takes to break even. Or that the question is pricing, not fleet size. And with fewer than five closed, dirham-billed trips in ninety days, it refuses to calculate.

The other half: replace instead of buy. The same candidate against one tractor's record: a year of repairs and tires, plus its remaining amortization. Sometimes the honest answer is to keep the old one. The new truck's repairs are unknown, and sit in no total.

The buying decision, on your numbers — not on a brochure.